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الموضوع: Rounding Bottom,Tops R,C

  1. #1

    Smile Rounding Bottom,Tops R,C

    Rounding Bottom,Tops

    Reversal

    Bottoms ,Revesal

    Tops
    Reversal & Continuation

    Q -
    How to judge the pattern that Continuum

    ورشة عمل لدارسة شروط وقواعد نموذج القاع المستدير

    والقمة

    المطلوب مشاركة الجميع وتفاعلهم

    اجراء بحث موسع عن النموذج :fruits_cherry:
    وتستطيعون ان تصلوا لشروط هذه الانماط لدى

    John Murphy

    Thomas N. Bulkowski

    ALAN S. FARLEY

    JOHN L. PERSON

    JACK D. SCHWAGER

    على سبيل المثال لاالحصر






  2. #2

    Smile رد: Rounding Bottom,Tops R,C



    توضيح لنمط القاع المستدير كما جاء بموقع جون ميرفي



    Rounding Bottom (Reversal)


    The rounding bottom is a long-term reversal pattern that is best suited for weekly charts. It is also referred to as a saucer bottom, and represents a long consolidation period that turns from a bearish bias to a bullish bias.

    Rounding Bottom,Tops  R,C نادي خبراء المال
    1. Prior Trend: In order to be a reversal pattern, there must be a prior trend to reverse. Ideally, the low of a rounding bottom will mark a new low or reaction low. In practice, there are occasions when the low is recorded many months earlier and the security trades flat before forming the pattern. When the rounding bottom does finally form, its low may not be the lowest low of the last few months.
    2. Decline: The first portion of the rounding bottom is the decline that leads to the low of the pattern. This decline can take on different forms: some are quite jagged with a number of reaction highs and lows, while others trade lower in a more linear fashion.
    3. Low: The low of the rounding bottom can resemble a "V' bottom, but should not be too sharp and should take a few weeks to form. Because prices are in a long-term decline, the possibility of a selling climax exists that could create a lower spike.
    4. Advance: The advance off of the lows forms the right half of the pattern and should take about the same amount of time as the prior decline. If the advance is too sharp, then the validity of a rounding bottom may be in question.
    5. Breakout: Bullish confirmation comes when the pattern breaks above the reaction high that marked the beginning of the decline at the start of the pattern. As with most resistance breakouts, this level can become support. However, rounding bottoms represent long-term reversal and this new support level may not be that significant.
    6. Volume: In an ideal pattern, volume levels will track the shape of the rounding bottom: high at the beginning of the decline, low at the end of the decline and rising during the advance. Volume levels are not too important on the decline, but there should be an increase in volume on the advance and preferably on the breakout.

    A rounding bottom could be thought of as a head and shoulders bottom without readily identifiable shoulders. The head represents the low and is fairly central to the pattern. The volume patterns are similar and confirmation comes with a resistance breakout. While symmetry is preferable on the rounding bottom, the left and right side do not have to be equal in time or slope. The important thing is to capture the essence of the pattern.

    Rounding Bottom,Tops  R,C نادي خبراء المال

    AMGN provides an example of a rounding bottom that formed after a long consolidation period. Throughout 1996, the stock traded in a tight range bound by 16.63 and 12.83. The trading range continued the first half of 1997 and the stock broke support by falling to a low of 12 in August.

    • Prior Trend: With the break of support at 12.83, it appeared that a downtrend had begun. Even though the decline was not that sharp, the new reaction low represented a 52-week low. AMGN was clearly not in an uptrend.
    • Decline: The stock declined from 17 to a low of 11.22 and a pair of hammers formed in Oct-98 to mark the end of the decline (red arrow).
    • Low: Prior to the hammers, the stock traded around 12 for the previous 6 weeks. When the gap up with high volume followed the hammers, it appeared that a low had been formed. After a short rally, there was another test of the low and a higher low formed at 11.66.
    • Advance: From the second low at 11.66, the advance began in earnest and volume started to increase. In March, there was a large advance with the highest volume in 4 months (green arrow).
    • May-97 resistance at 17 represented the confirmation line for the pattern. The stock broke resistance in Jul-98 with a further expansion of volume. This breakout was also confirmed with a new high in OBV.
    • After breaking resistance, there was a test of support and the stock actually fell back below 17. The stock had advanced from 11.66 to 19.84 in 6 months and some sort of pullback could have been expected.

  3. #3

    افتراضي رد: Rounding Bottom,Tops R,C

    وهذا توضيح بسيط لنمط القمة


    Rounding Top


    Technically speaking, a rounding top is a rally to a new high on strong volume, several weeks of light trade with limited upside progress, several more weeks of light trade with a decided downward bias, followed by a sharp move lower on strong volume.
    Why Does It Happen?
    At first and maybe even second glance, rounding top patterns are going to look very familiar. This is because they have many of the same characteristics of head and shoulders top patterns. Often there will be a very clear "head", that is a rally to a new high in the middle of the pattern. Rounding top patterns differ from garden variety head and shoulders top patterns in that very often there are multiple "shoulders". So, why does this happen? As you might expect, rounding top patterns occur for many of the same reasons as do head and shoulders top patterns. The first part of the pattern will always take shape after an extended rally to new highs. The flow of fundamental news is usually positive and buyers seem willing to pay increasingly higher prices -- for a while. Following one positive development the stock rallies to a fresh new high on strong volume but to the surprise of bullish investors, sellers are more than willing to liquidate positions. After a few sessions, the stock begins to move lower on increased volume. Investors and analysts will normally rationalize this development as simple profit taking but the rise in volume and weak price action is a clue, longer-term investors that bought at lower prices are selling, they are using good news to distribute stock. The rally to new highs and pullback to a nearby support level (reaction low) completes the first phase of the pattern. Because the fundamental news remains positive, bullish investors soon return, sending the stock back to test the recent high but once again they are turned back by sellers and the stock drifts back to the reaction low (now key support). Roused by more positive commentary by either the company or Wall Street analysts buyers make another run at what has become overhead resistance and to their delight, the stock pushes to a new high. There is just one problem, volume is even more feeble than the previous two rallies and the move higher stalls. Buyers are beginning to grow anxious because the fundamental news is positive and sentiment excellent yet sellers continue to exert downside price pressure. A new decline begins but the weakness ends as the stock approaches key support. Against the backdrop of more good news on the fundamental front, buyers make two further attempts to push the stock through resistance. During each attempt volume slows progressively and ultimately the stock slumps back to support. At this point buyers have reached their limit, they begin to question everything -- yes, the fundamental data is currently strong but will that last? Five rallies have failed. It is at this point of weakness that the first piece of bad news is released. Suddenly all of the assumptions that lead the stock to new highs are called into question, those that had been supporting the stock panic and key support fails miserably. The stock gaps lower and a huge decline begins. Weeks later the stock trades back to longer-term support.
    How are Technical Measures and Targets Derived?
    Unlike head and shoulders top patterns, rounding tops generally do not lend well to price targets because the pattern is meandering. In most cases one can expect a decline back to the longer-term support level following a break below key support.
    The Rounding Top For International Business Machines

    Rounding Bottom,Tops  R,C نادي خبراء المال
    In a world of earnings warnings and unfulfilled promises in the winter of 2001, International Business Machines (IBM) was a refreshing success story. Not only had the firm succeeded where others had failed but by all accounts, it was building market share and becoming the undisputed leader of the new economy. One year after introducing is very successful line of Shark data storage servers they began rolling out software applications for mission critical UNIX and LINUX platforms. The stock moved from a low of $87.50 on March 21 to a high of $99.89 on April 16 before releasing first quarter earnings on April 18. The earnings were in-line with Wall Street expectations. The revenue numbers were well ahead and the stock spiked higher, trading to $115.87 the next session and as high as $118.93 by May 2. Wall Street analysts were falling over one another to recommend the stock, IBM was seen as the savior for the market. But just two days after all of the positive talk the stock settled back to $111.18. Just two days later the stock was moving higher again on a note from UBS Warburg suggesting that IBM would "leapfrog" the competition with its UNIX servers. Once again the stock traded back to $118.93 only to decline back to $111 by May 14. Once again Wall Street firms defended the stock and IBM pushed to a new high on May 21 at $119.88 following news releases for several new products and contract wins. The next day IBM CEO Lou Gerstner filed to sell 250,000 shares and the stock began to move lower again, testing $111 by June 1. The next session IBM announced a software and hardware deal with the Chinese government. The stock rallied to back to $118.93 over the next two sessions but by June 26 shares were back at $111. The final rally came June 29 when IBM announced it had built the "worlds fastest transitory". After an initial move to $116.87 IBM shares once again slumped to $111. On July 6 IBM competitor EMC Corp. (EMC) announced its third earnings warning in as many quarters and IBM shares gapped though support at $111 at the open. A downside breakout became effective, IBM shares traded to $92 just two months later. Vital Signs
    • Symmetry is Important. The most reliable rounding top patterns do not stray from the confines of a tight semi-circle and usually resemble head and shoulders top patterns with two left shoulders, one head and two right shoulders. Obviously askew patterns should be avoided.
    • It is important that volume decline on each successive rally in formation of the pattern. The weak volume and rising price is a good indication that distribution is at work.
    • Downside breakouts often lead to small 2-3% declines followed by an immediate test of the breakout level. If the stock closes above this level (now resistance) for any reason the pattern becomes invalid.
    It makes sense that if we have a rounding top, we can have a rounding bottom.
    Let's examine that chart pattern





  4. #4

    افتراضي رد: Rounding Bottom,Tops R,C

    بعد ان نتدارس النمط وشروطه

    سنقوم بتلخيص توضيح عنه باللغة العربيه وسيكون التوضيح بامثله حديثه من السوق السعودي

    بعيدا عن امثله الكتب القديمه التي لاتخص السوق السعودي

    وماهي الا نتاج دارسة حاله نمط فني بتلك الاسواق

    Rounding Bottom,Tops  R,C نادي خبراء المال


  5. #5

  6. #6

    افتراضي رد: Rounding Bottom,Tops R,C

    بارك الله فيك ومتابعين معك وسوف أضع بعض الشروط التي قرأءتها لاحقا

  7. #7

    افتراضي رد: Rounding Bottom,Tops R,C

    بارك الله فيك

    دائما مواضيعك مميزة

    ماشاء الله تبارك الله

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