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  1. #41

    افتراضي رد: يا اهل اسمنت السعودية

    اقتباس المشاركة الأصلية كتبت بواسطة محمد حنفي مشاهدة المشاركة
    لا فض فوك دكتور

    كلام علمى مرتب و مغلف بخلق دمث

    بارك الله فيك

    شكرا اخي محمد

    وشكرا لحذفك المشاركات التي ليست في صلب الموضوع

  2. #42

    افتراضي رد: يا اهل اسمنت السعودية

    Double Bottoms,
    Adam & Adam
    RESULTS SNAPSHOT
    Upward Breakouts
    Appearance Double bottom pattern with narrow or spike
    bottoms. Breakout is upward.
    Reversal or continuation Short-term bullish reversal
    Bull Market Bear Market
    Performance rank 10 out of 23 10 out of 19
    Break-even failure rate 5% 7%
    Average rise 35% 24%
    Change after trend ends –33% –32%
    Volume trend Downward Downward
    Throwbacks 64% 61%
    Percentage meeting price target 66% 48%
    Surprising findings Throwbacks hurt performance. Tall patterns
    perform better than short ones. Performance
    improves for those patterns with a lower right
    bottom, a declining volume trend, domeshaped
    volume, heavy breakout volume, and
    volume heavier on the left bottoms.
    See also Double bottoms, Adam & Eve; Double
    bottoms, Eve & Adam; Double bottoms,
    Eve & Eve.
    A A
    This is the first of four chapters on double bottoms. Each chapter represents a
    different bottom shape. An Adam & Adam double bottom reminds me of a person
    on stilts: narrow legs perhaps made of single spikes that touch the ground
    near the same price.
    The Results Snapshot shows the important numbers. Adam & Adam double
    bottoms (AADBs) sport decent break-even failure rates with mediocre average
    rises. Throwbacks occur in nearly two out of three trades, so you may be
    able to add to your position or initiate a new one during a throwback. Surprises
    are many and most relate to volume. I discuss all of them in the Statistics section.
    Tour
    Figure 13.1 shows the first example of an Adam & Adam double bottom. Since
    we are looking at bottoms, the pattern forms at the end of a downward price
    plunge. The pattern can also appear in the corrective phase of a measured move
    up. Notice the twin spikes (bottoms) that happen so often in this pattern. They
    drop well below the surrounding price lows yet stop near the same price level.
    The rounded turn connecting the two bottoms need not be rounded at all—
    many times, it appears irregular. Volume is higher on the left bottom than on the
    right, as in this example. Thus, the volume trend recedes from bottom to bottom
    yet takes on a
    U shape that extends beyond the right bottom low in this example.

    214
    Double Bottoms, Adam & Adam

    Adam Adam
    Throwback
    Confirmation Line
    Engelhard Corporation (Chemical (Specialty), NYSE, EC)
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    02 Oct Nov Dec Jan 03 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
    Figure 13.1
    An Adam & Adam double bottom with twin spikes, volume heavier
    on the left bottom than the right, and U-shaped volume.

    The confirmation line marks the highest high in the pattern. A twin bottom
    pattern is not a valid double bottom until price closes above the confirmation
    line. That occurrence signals a breakout and time to take a position in the stock.
    But before you do, check the identification guidelines to be sure you have a good
    pattern.
    Identification Guidelines
    The double bottom pattern is one of the easier patterns to identify, but I have
    expanded the identification characteristics table (Table 13.1) for this pattern and
    made the recommendations more specific.
    Downward price trend.
    Look for price to be tending downward into the
    pattern. A study documented in my book,
    Trading Classic Chart Patterns (Wiley
    2002), suggests that performance improves for patterns with trends leading to
    the pattern less than 6 months long. Most of the time (58%), a short-term (0 to
    3 months) downtrend precedes the pattern.

    Bottom shape.
    The shape of each bottom should appear similar. That
    means both should look narrow, not one wide and one narrow, perhaps with a
    long, downward price spike or tail. To gauge the width, look at the
    top of the bottom.
    I know that sounds confusing, but the top end of the spike will be wider
    than the base. (Eve bottoms will appear more rounded and wider than will their
    Adam counterparts.)

    Identification Guidelines
    215

    Table 13.1
    Identification Characteristics
    Characteristic Discussion
    Downward price Price trends downward leading to the double bottom and should
    trend not drift below the left bottom.
    Bottom shape Narrow, V-shaped bottoms, sometimes composed of long, oneday
    spikes.
    Rise between At least 10% from the lowest valley to the highest peak between
    bottoms the two bottoms. Taller patterns perform better.
    Bottom low Bottom to bottom price variation is small. Best performance is
    prices between 2% and 5% variation.
    Bottom Bottoms should be at least a few weeks apart. Best performance is
    separation 3–6 weeks apart. Wider than 8 weeks and performance deteriorates.
    Price rise after Price must close above the confirmation point without first falling
    right bottom below the right bottom low.
    Bottom volume Usually higher on the left bottom than the right.
    Confirmation The highest high between the two bottoms. A close above the
    price confirmation point is the breakout and confirms the pattern as a
    valid double bottom.
    When judging bottom shape, ask yourself if the bottoms look the same or
    different. If they look the same, then you have either Adam & Adam or Eve &
    Eve bottoms. Narrow bottoms signify the Adam variety and wide bottoms signify
    the Eve variety.
    Rise between bottoms.
    Look for a rise between the twin bottoms of at
    least 10%, as measured from the lowest bottom low to the highest high between
    the two bottoms. For example, consider Figure 13.2, which shows an AADB.
    The pattern has two narrow bottoms, both with spikes (the left longer than the
    right), and volume that is higher on the left side than on the right. Twin bottom
    AB (upper left) may look like a double bottom but the 4% rise measured from
    A to C is not high enough to be a true double bottom. The 10% rise figure is
    an arbitrary one, but I will show that the higher the number, the better the performance
    (that is, tall patterns perform better than short ones).

    Bottom low prices.
    From the lowest low on the left bottom to the low on
    the right, the price variation should be small. For example, do not try to assign
    double bottom status to the right bottom and point D in Figure 13.2. Point D
    does not drop close enough to the right bottom to qualify it as a valid bottom.
    After gathering statistics on AADBs, I found that the best performance
    comes from bottoms in which the price variation is between 2% and 5%. Patterns
    with a lower right bottom also perform better after the breakout.

    Bottom separation.
    How far apart should the bottoms be? Some texts
    say that bottoms must be at least a month apart, but I set no such limit. I stip-

    216
    Double Bottoms, Adam & Adam

    A B
    C
    D
    Confirmation Line
    Throwback
    Adam Adam
    Coherent (Percision Instrument, NASDAQ, COHR)
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    96 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 97 Feb Mar Apr
    Figure 13.2
    An Adam & Adam double bottom with a throwback. Pattern AB
    (upper left) is not a double bottom because the rise to C is not high enough.

    ulated that the bottoms should be distinct minor lows, not lows that are part of
    the same congestion pattern. I found that the best separation is for bottoms 3
    to 6 weeks part. Bottoms farther apart than 8 weeks showed performance deteriorating.
    I measured the bottom distance between the lowest low in each valley
    (which also marked the beginning and ending of each AADB pattern).
    Price rise after right bottom.
    After price digs the second valley in the
    double bottom pattern, prices take time to rise to confirmation. What you need
    to avoid is prices drifting down and making a third bottom. Another bottom near
    the same price as the first two qualifies the pattern as a triple bottom (but you
    still have to wait for confirmation). I removed from consideration any pattern
    with a third bottom falling
    below the other two (it is not a triple bottom and
    price did not confirm the AADB).

    Bottom volume.
    The left bottom usually shows higher volume. However,
    volume higher on the right side should not exclude the pattern from consideration.
    Figures 13.1 and 13.2 show volume higher on the left bottom than on the
    right. We will see that AADBs with higher left volume perform better.

    Confirmation price.
    A twin bottom pattern is not a valid double bottom
    until price closes above the high between the two bottoms. Always wait for confirmation
    before taking a position in a stock because price continues down 64%
    of the time—and that is in a bull market, too!
    Figure 13.3 shows two examples of double bottoms. Are they double bottoms
    or just twin valley patterns? In both cases, the price trend leading to the

    Identification Guidelines
    217

    Adam
    Adam
    Adam
    Adam
    Ann Taylor (Retail (Special Lines), NYSE, ANN)
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    99 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 00 Feb
    Figure 13.3
    Shown are two Adam & Adam double bottoms. The horizontal lines
    are the confirmation lines. A close above the line means the pattern is a true AADB.

    patterns is downward, as required. The bottoms are pointed with one-day spikes.
    All bottoms are
    V shaped, not rounded turns. The rise to the confirmation line
    is 24% for the August bottom and 17% for the October pattern.
    The prices at each bottom are close enough to each other that they look
    like bottoms, not rising steps. The time between the twin bottoms is 3 weeks
    for the August example and 2 weeks for the October bottom. Prices rise to the
    confirmation point in a snappy manner, closing above the highest high in just
    a few days.
    The volume pattern is unexciting, including the breakout volume. In both
    examples, volume is higher on the left bottom than on the right. The breakout
    volume is slightly above the 30-day average, classifying the breakout as having
    heavy volume. Thus, both patterns shown in Figure 13.3 are valid double bottoms.
    However, prices rise just 18% and 16% after the breakout. How can we
    tell the outperformers from the also-rans?

    Focus on Failures
    Figure 13.4 shows the first double bottom failure and it is typical. The pattern
    has valleys that form after a short-term downward price trend and bottom near
    218
    Double Bottoms, Adam & Adam

    Confirmation Line
    Adam Adam
    Devon Energy Corp. (Natural Gas (Diversified), AMEX, DVN)
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    00 Nov Dec Jan 01 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
    Figure 13.4
    An Adam & Adam double bottom confirmed when price closed above
    the confirmation line, but price soon stalled. Overhead resistance (not shown) may
    have played a part, but other stocks in the industry were showing topping patterns.

    the same price. The valleys are 29 days apart, with a 17% rise between them.
    The AADB pattern confirms when price rises above the confirmation line.
    Price climbs just 2% after the breakout. Why so low? The first clue is that
    the pattern is in a bear market, which is never good for bullish chart patterns.
    The downward price trend starts at the March peak, so it is less than a month
    long. Before that, prices started climbing from the October 2000 lows. In other
    words, the double bottom did not act as a reversal of the longer-term prevailing
    price trend, but as a consolidation.
    If you extended the figure to the left, you would see a long line of peaks
    stretching to May 2000. That line represented a massive zone of resistance that
    the double bottom could not pierce. A check of other companies in the diversified
    natural gas industry showed that most of them had stocks peaking in May
    or June. They all started tumbling at the same time. A check of them showed
    that topping patterns predominated (double tops and triple tops), signaling a
    downward price trend. Thus, a smart investor would have not taken this trade.
    Figure 13.5 shows an example of a second type of failure that perhaps you,
    too, have seen. Ted is a novice investor with an attitude. He looks at the stock
    chart, checks the identification guidelines, and believes that the stock is making
    a double bottom. When prices rise after the second bottom, Ted decides to
    pull the trigger early and buys the stock, receiving a fill at 42.63. He reasons
    that all the indications suggest the stock has completed a valid double bottom.
    Focus on Failures
    219

    Air Products and Chemicals Inc. (Chemical (Diversified), NYSE, APD)
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    48

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    Jan 93 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
    Adam
    Adam
    Confirmation Level
    Stock
    Bought
    Here
    Stock Sold Here
    After One-Day
    Reversal

    Figure 13.5
    Example of second type of failurefailing to wait for breakout confirmation.
    Ted decided to get an early start on the double bottom but ended up
    losing money.

    That being the case, why not get in now while the price is still low instead of
    waiting for prices to rise above the confirmation point (46.25)? Ted makes a
    good point. He is pleased with the stock’s performance until it begins to round
    over. Does he sell out now at a small profit or should he hold on and risk a
    downturn while waiting for additional gains? This is a recurring investor
    dilemma.
    He decides to hang onto his position. During May, the stock surges upward
    again before beginning a downhill run. Ted watches in horror as his profit vanishes
    and losses mount. Eventually, when prices spike downward, he sells at the
    opening the next day and close out his position.
    What did he do wrong? He failed to wait for breakout confirmation. Prices
    must close above the confirmation point before a trade is placed. Otherwise your
    chances of success are only one in three.
    Statistics
    Table 13.2 shows general statistics for this chart pattern.
    Number of formations.
    I found 281 AADBs in 500 stocks from mid-1991
    to mid-1996 and from 2000 to 2004, with others between those dates.

    Reversal or continuation.
    The pattern is a bottom with an upward breakout.
    Thus, all acted as reversals of the downward price trend, by definition.

    Average rise.
    The 35% rise is about what you would expect from a bullish
    pattern in a bull market. The 24% bear market result surprised me because
    it is so low, but it nears the average of all other chart pattern types (25%).

    Rises over 45%.
    How well does this pattern do? In a bull market, over a
    quarter of the patterns (28%) climbed over 45%. Patterns in a bear market also
    held up well, with 15% soaring more than 45%.

    220
    Double Bottoms, Adam & Adam

    Table 13.2
    General Statistics
    Bull Bear
    Description Market Market
    Number of formations 206 75
    Reversal (R), continuation (C) 206 R 75 R
    Average rise 35% 24%
    Rises over 45% 58 or 28% 11 or 15%
    Change after trend ends
    33% 32%
    Busted pattern performance
    32%a 35%a

    Standard & Poor
    s 500 change 16% 1%
    Days to ultimate high 136 105

    Note
    : Minus sign means decline.

    a
    Fewer than 30 samples.

    Change after trend ends.
    Once prices top out at the ultimate high, then
    what happens? They tumble about 33%. In a bear market, the decline gives up
    all the gains and more.
    For aggressive traders in a bear market, wait for prices to peak then short
    the stock and ride it down. The trick, of course, is to buy just after it peaks. How
    can you tell when the stock peaks? Look for topping patterns that break out
    downward in other stocks, especially those in the same industry. A strong market
    downturn is also helpful. Or, trade a busted pattern.

    Busted pattern performance.
    Busted patterns have good bearish performance
    but the samples are few. Busted patterns are easy to spot (like the one in
    Figure 13.4) because price climbs less than 5% before tumbling. Short the stock
    when you are sure prices are heading down and not just completing a throwback.

    Standard & Poor’s 500 change.
    The S&P 500 index climbed in both
    bull and bear markets by 16% and 1%, respectively. The strong push from the
    general market helped the chart pattern perform in a bull market.

    Days to ultimate high.
    How long did it take price to reach the ultimate
    high? Answer: about 4 months in a bull market and 3.5 months in a bear market.
    Table 13.3 lists failure rates. AADBs have single-digit break-even failure
    rates that climb as the maximum price rises. For example, 5% of the patterns in
    a bull market fail to rise at least 5% after the breakout. Over a quarter (26%) rise
    less than 15% in a bull market and 35% fail to rise at least 15% in a bear market.
    Half the patterns top out after gains of just over 25% in a bull market and 20%
    in a bear market.
    Perhaps the biggest surprise is how quickly the failure rates climb. In a bull
    market, they triple from 5% to 17%. Bear markets double from 7% to 15% and
    then double again to 35% as the maximum price climbs 5%, 10%, and 15%.
    The table gives you some idea how typical double bottoms work. It also
    suggests that you should stick to trading double bottoms in a bull market
    (because of lower failure rates).

    Statistics
    221

    Table 13.3
    Failure Rates
    Maximum Price Rise (%) Bull Market Bear Market
    5 (breakeven) 11 or 5% 5 or 7%
    10 36 or 17% 11 or 15%
    15 54 or 26% 26 or 35%
    20 77 or 37% 37 or 49%
    25 93 or 45% 42 or 56%
    30 110 or 53% 51 or 68%
    35 128 or 62% 58 or 77%
    50 155 or 75% 67 or 88%
    75 180 or 87% 68 or 91%
    Over 75 206 or 100% 75 or 100%
    Another use of Table 13.3 is to check on the measure rule prediction, discussed
    in the Trading Tactics section later. Suppose it predicts a rise from 10 to
    13 in a bear market. That is a 30% move. How many patterns will rise at least that
    far? Answer: 32% (68%, on average, will fail to make it that far). Thus, it appears
    that the target is too far away, and you should anticipate price topping out sooner.
    Table 13.4 shows breakout- and postbreakout-related statistics.
    Formation end to breakout.
    It takes just over a month, on average, for
    prices to rise from the low at the right bottom to the breakout. As the figures in
    this chapter show, there is wide variation.

    Yearly position.
    Where in the yearly price range does the AADB breakout
    occur most often? For both bull and bear markets, the middle of the yearly
    trading range is the most popular.

    Yearly position, performance.
    Where in the yearly range do the best
    performing AADBs reside? The answer depends on market conditions. In a
    bull market, AADBs with breakouts near the yearly low do best. In a bear market,
    those in the middle of the range do best, but the samples are few.

    Throwbacks.
    A throwback occurs in almost two of every three trades.
    That is a high return rate. Thus, if you missed investing in a double bottom, you
    may have another opportunity if it throws back.
    The average time to throwback is 9 to 11 days. When an AADB throws
    back, performance suffers, so be sure to check for (and avoid) overhead resistance
    before trading.

    222
    Double Bottoms, Adam & Adam

    Table 13.4
    Breakout and Postbreakout Statistics
    Description Bull Market Bear Market
    Formation end to breakout 38 days 35 days
    Percentage of breakouts occurring
    near the 12-month low (L),
    center (C), or high (H) L32%, C43%, H25% L32%, C35%, H33%
    Percentage rise for each 12-month
    lookback period L40%, C32%, H39% L28%
    a, C31%a, H16%a

    Throwback 64% 61%
    Average time to throwback ends 11 days 9 days
    Average rise for patterns with
    throwback 28% 23%
    Average rise for patterns without
    throwback 44% 26%
    a

    Performance with breakout day gap 45% 24%
    a

    Performance without breakout
    day gap 33% 24%
    Average gap size $0.45 $0.29
    a
    Fewer than 30 samples.

    Gaps.
    Breakout day gaps help performance in a bull market but show no
    performance improvement in a bear market. Usually, the gap size in a bear market
    is huge compared to the bull market one, but not in this case. Blame the
    small sample count.
    Table 13.5 shows a frequency distribution of days to the ultimate high.
    Many of the patterns reach the ultimate high after 70 days (50% of them in a
    bull market). Fewer than 20% top out in the first week.
    Look what happens after 35 days. In both markets, more patterns top out
    (9% in a bear market and 5% in a bull market). That finding suggests price
    weakens slightly during that time. Thus, be prepared to close out your trade a
    month after the breakout.
    Table 13.6 shows statistics related to size.

    Statistics
    223

    Table 13.5
    Frequency Distribution of Days to Ultimate High
    Days: 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 56 63 70 >70
    Bear market 19% 7% 8% 7% 9% 1% 3% 3% 3% 4% 37%
    Bull market 14% 6% 4% 4% 5% 5% 2% 3% 4% 3% 50%
    Table 13.6
    Size Statistics
    Description Bull Market Bear Market
    Tall pattern performance 39% 25%
    Short pattern performance 33% 24%
    Median height as a percentage of breakout price 17.54% 19.27%
    Narrow pattern performance 35% 27%
    Wide pattern performance 35% 22%
    Median length 37 days 25 days
    Average formation length 52 days 48 days
    Short and narrow performance 37% 28%
    a

    Short and wide performance 26% 18%
    a

    Tall and wide performance 45% 24%
    a

    Tall and narrow performance 32% 26%
    a

    Small bottom price variation 34% 27%
    Large bottom price variation 36% 21%
    Median price variation 1.77% 1.64%
    Lower left bottom performance 29% 23%
    Lower right bottom performance 39% 26%
    a
    Fewer than 30 samples.

    Height.
    Do tall patterns perform better than short ones? Yes. To use this
    finding, measure the height from the highest high to the lowest low in the pattern
    and then divide by the breakout price (the highest high). Compare the result
    with the median shown in the table. A value higher than the median means you
    have a tall pattern. Lower than the median and you have a short one. Trade only
    tall patterns for the best performance.

    Width.
    Narrow patterns outperform only in a bear market. The bull market
    shows no performance difference for width. I used the median length as the
    separator between narrow and wide.

    Average formation length.
    The average double bottom length measured
    slightly fewer than 2 months. I used the time between the lowest lows of
    each bottom.

    Height and width combinations.
    AADBs both tall and wide performed
    better in a bull market. Short and narrow AADBs did well in a bear market, but
    the sample size is small. Avoid short and wide patterns as they showed the worst
    performance.

    Bottom price variation.
    I checked to see if AADBs with large price variations
    (between bottom lows) performed better or worse than did those with
    minor variations. In a bull market, AADBs with large price variations performed
    better. AADBs with small price variations did better in a bear market.

    Lower bottom performance.
    When the right bottom had a lower price
    than the left, the AADB tended to outperform, sometimes substantially (bull
    market: 39% versus 29% rise).
    Table 13.7 shows volume-related statistics.

    224
    Double Bottoms, Adam & Adam

    Table 13.7
    Volume Statistics
    Description Bull Market Bear Market
    Rising volume trend performance 30% 19%
    a

    Falling volume trend performance 38% 27%
    U-shaped volume pattern performance 33% 22%
    Dome-shaped volume pattern performance 43% 29%
    Neither U-shaped nor dome-shaped volume pattern 23%
    a 18%a

    performance
    Heavy breakout volume performance 36% 26%
    Light breakout volume performance 31% 20%
    a

    Heavy left bottom volume performance 37% 27%
    Heavy right bottom volume performance 32% 21%
    a
    a
    Fewer than 30 samples.

    Volume trend.
    When volume recedes from bottom to bottom, the
    postbreakout performance is superior to those AADBs that have a rising volume
    trend.

    Volume shapes.
    The most common volume shape is U (then domed, then
    random). Assigning performance to those patterns with various volume shapes,
    we find that those with dome-shaped volume perform best. The worst performance
    came from AADBs with a random volume shape.

    Breakout volume.
    Does a heavy volume breakout propel prices farther?
    Yes. I compared the 1-month volume average (leading to the breakout) to the
    breakout day volume. Those patterns with volume heavier than the average did
    better than did those with light breakout volume.

    Bottom volume.
    I tallied the 5-day average volume surrounding each
    bottom (2 days before to 2 days after the lowest low) and compared it to the
    average of the opposite bottom. The best performance came when the left bottom
    showed heavier volume than the right bottom.

    Trading Tactics
    Table 13.8 shows trading tactics.
    Measure rule.
    Use the measure rule to compute a target price. In a bull
    market, prices hit the target 66% of the time, but just 48% of the time in a bear
    market.
    To find the target, subtract the lowest low in whichever bottom is lower
    from the highest high between the two bottoms. Add the difference to the highest
    high. The result is the minimum price move to expect. For example, look at
    Figure 13.6. The highest high is at 20 (the breakout price or confirmation line)

    Trading Tactics
    225

    Table 13.8
    Trading Tactics
    Trading Tactic Explanation
    Measure rule Compute the height from the highest high between
    the two bottoms to the lower of the two bottoms then
    add the difference to the highest high. The result is the
    target price.
    Wait for breakout Always wait for confirmation (a close above the highest
    high).
    Trade with market trend To improve your odds, trade this bullish pattern in a
    bull market.
    Check others in the industry Are other stocks in the same industry showing bottoming
    patterns?
    Throwback Initiate or add to your position once price starts
    rebounding after a throwback.
    and the right bottom is lower, at 15.50. Add the difference, 4.50, to the highest
    high to get the target, or 24.50.
    Wait for breakout.
    Since AADBs act as reversals of the prevailing price
    trend, there is 64% chance that prices will continue declining instead of confirming
    the double bottom. That is why you should wait for a breakout (a close
    above the confirmation line, which is the price of the highest high between the
    two bottoms). Buying before the breakout is an easy way to lose money.

    Trade with market trend.
    Since this pattern performs best in a bull
    market, avoid trading it in a bear market. Look at the fundamentals and see if
    there is a reason for the stock to reverse the downward price trend.

    Check others in the industry.
    What are other stocks in the same industry
    doing? If they are showing signs of bottoming, then the AADB becomes
    more important. If the other stocks are continuing down, avoid trading the double
    bottom. Chances are the stock will fail to perform as expected.

    Throwback.
    Since a throwback occurs 64% of the time in a bull market
    and 61% in a bear market, you can initiate a position after the throwback completes
    or add to your position. Before investing, wait for prices to begin rebounding
    and then buy. Otherwise, the throwback may send prices down like that
    shown in Figure 13.4.

    226
    Double Bottoms, Adam & Adam

    Cup
    Confirmation Line
    Bought
    Handle
    Bought More
    Adam Adam
    Sell
    Trend Line
    Trend Line
    Noble Corporation (Oilfield Svcs/Equipment, NYSE, NE)
    11
    12
    13
    14
    15
    16
    17
    18
    19
    20
    21
    22
    23
    24
    25
    26
    27
    28
    30
    32
    96 Dec Jan 97 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
    Figure 13.6
    Randy traded this Adam & Adam double bottom, buying at the confirmation
    price, buying again when price closed above the cup-with-handle trend
    line, and selling when price closed below the long, up-sloping sell trend line.

    Sample Trade
    Randy traded the stock shown in Figure 13.6 and made a tidy sum of money. Let
    me tell you how he did it. First he qualified the pattern as a true double bottom
    by reviewing the identification characteristics listed in Table 13.1. Briefly, the
    stock started down in early January after a long-term uptrend that began in
    February 1995. The twin bottoms were narrow with one-day downward spikes.
    The rise between bottoms measured 29%; the bottom lows were 1% apart in
    price and separated by 64 days. Oddly, the right bottom showed higher volume.
    He placed an order to buy the stock at the confirmation price. Thus, he would
    get in at a good price and received a fill at 20.
    The stock struggled by moving sideways for a week then achieved liftoff.
    Price climbed until early June when it started retracing. The retrace turned
    into a throwback when price pierced the confirmation line at 20. Prices moved
    up again and retraced, forming the handle of a cup-with-handle pattern. Randy
    drew a down-sloping trend line along the handle, and the day after price closed
    above the trend line, he bought more, receiving a fill at 22.73.
    He computed the target price for the AADB (24.50, see the “Measure rule”
    in Table 13.8) and smiled when prices passed that, moving up. Then, he drew
    an up-sloping trend line following the contours of the handle (called the “Sell
    Trendline” in Figure 13.6). He vowed to sell the day after price closed below the
    trend line, which it did in late November (not shown), and he received a fill at
    32. That was down considerably from the high at 38.19, but he made 60% on
    his first trade and 41% on the cup-with-handle trade.
    For Best Performance
    The following list includes tips and observations to help select Adam & Adam
    double bottoms that perform better after the breakout. Consult the associated
    table for more information.
    • Review the identification characteristics for correct selection and performance
    tips—Table 13.1.
    • Select patterns in a bull market. They have the largest average rise—
    Table 13.2.
    • Patterns in a bull market have the lowest failure rate—Table 13.3.
    • Throwbacks hurt performance, so avoid patterns with overhead
    resistance—Table 13.4.
    • Look for price weakness a month after the breakout—Table 13.5.
    • Select tall patterns. Avoid ones that are both short and wide—
    Table 13.6.
    For Best Performance
    227

    • Pick AADBs with a lower right bottom—Table 13.6.
    • Select patterns with a falling volume trend and dome-shaped volume—
    Table 13.7.
    • Patterns with heavy breakout volume do well—Table 13.7.
    • Patterns with volume heavier on the left bottom outperform—
    Table 13.7.

  3. #43

    افتراضي رد: يا اهل اسمنت السعودية

    For Best Performance
    The following list includes tips and observations to help select Adam & Adam
    double bottoms that perform better after the breakout. Consult the associated
    table for more information.
    Review the identification characteristics for correct selection and performance
    tipsTable 13.1.
    Select patterns in a bull market. They have the largest average rise
    Table 13.2.
    Patterns in a bull market have the lowest failure rateTable 13.3.
    Throwbacks hurt performance, so avoid patterns with overhead
    resistanceTable 13.4.
    Look for price weakness a month after the breakoutTable 13.5.
    Select tall patterns. Avoid ones that are both short and wide
    Table 13.6.
    For Best Performance 227
    Pick AADBs with a lower right bottomTable 13.6.
    Select patterns with a falling volume trend and dome-shaped volume
    Table 13.7.
    Patterns with heavy breakout volume do wellTable 13.7.
    Patterns with volume heavier on the left bottom outperform
    Table 13.7.

  4. #44

    افتراضي رد: يا اهل اسمنت السعودية

    The Adam and Eve combinations of double bottoms and tops are a relatively
    new addition to my trading arsenal. I found out about them in 2001 from a Web
    site. The Adam bottom looks narrow and
    V-shaped, perhaps with a large downward
    price spike. The Eve bottom is wide, rounded, and sometimes has many
    short spikes like weeds sprouting in a lawn.
    Performance is similar across the various combinations of Adam and Eve
    double bottoms (AEDBs). Still, I treat each as a separate pattern just to be sure.
    The Results Snapshot shows the important performance numbers.
    The average rise in a bear market is quite good, almost as good as the 37%
    rise in a bull market. Throwbacks occur about half the time, but when they happen,
    performance suffers. Speaking of performance, the following characteristics
    appear in AEDBs that perform well: tall patterns, patterns with a receding
    volume trend, and volume heavier on the left bottom. I discuss these findings
    in the Statistics section.




    هذا كلام مكتشف النموذج

  5. #45

    افتراضي رد: يا اهل اسمنت السعودية

    اقتباس المشاركة الأصلية كتبت بواسطة د.صديق البلوشي مشاهدة المشاركة
    كلام رائع جدا .. ممكن تعطيني المصدر من اجل ان نستفيد يا اهل اسمنت السعودية نادي خبراء المال
    المصدرzayoody
    الذي يحاول استغلال الهبوط والصعود لكي يخرج بنظريات جديده معقده
    ويروق لي النقاش معك ابو نهي .. لان حبر قلمك الفكري يبدو رائعاً..
    هل تقبل تحياتي لضيق الوقت ؟

  6. #46

    افتراضي رد: يا اهل اسمنت السعودية

    اقتباس المشاركة الأصلية كتبت بواسطة د.صديق البلوشي مشاهدة المشاركة
    شكرا اخي محمد

    وشكرا لحذفك المشاركات التي ليست في صلب الموضوع

    لك الحق ان تسميها خارجه عن صلب الموضوع اذا كانت مخالف لوجهه نظرك

    كما اتمنى ان يكون شيئ من المصداقيه وتعترف بالكيل بمكيالين
    يا اهل اسمنت السعودية نادي خبراء المال


    اذا كنتم لاترون اننا لانجاملكم فهذا معرفنا واحذفوه

  7. #47

    افتراضي رد: يا اهل اسمنت السعودية

    اقتباس المشاركة الأصلية كتبت بواسطة zayoody مشاهدة المشاركة
    المصدرzayoody


    الذي يحاول استغلال الهبوط والصعود لكي يخرج بنظريات جديده معقده
    ويروق لي النقاش معك ابو نهي .. لان حبر قلمك الفكري يبدو رائعاً..


    هل تقبل تحياتي لضيق الوقت ؟


    لا يا اهل اسمنت السعودية نادي خبراء المال

  8. #48

    افتراضي رد: يا اهل اسمنت السعودية

    اقتباس المشاركة الأصلية كتبت بواسطة ابو سيف مشاهدة المشاركة
    لك الحق ان تسميها خارجه عن صلب الموضوع اذا كانت مخالف لوجهه نظرك

    كما اتمنى ان يكون شيئ من المصداقيه وتعترف بالكيل بمكيالينيا اهل اسمنت السعودية نادي خبراء المال


    اذا كنتم لاترون اننا لانجاملكم فهذا معرفنا واحذفوه
    يا اهل اسمنت السعودية نادي خبراء الماليا اهل اسمنت السعودية نادي خبراء المال

  9. #49

    افتراضي رد: يا اهل اسمنت السعودية

    اي موضوع يشطح عند احدود الادب يلغي احسن حاجه ويقول المثل مايطب الملعبه الا رقاص

  10. #50

    افتراضي رد: يا اهل اسمنت السعودية

    هذه تكفي ...

    The Adam and Eve combinations of double bottoms and tops are a relatively
    new addition to my trading arsenal. I found out about them in 2001 from a Web
    site

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