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الموضوع: Arab Stock Markets Recover Even as Oil Prices Tumble

  1. #1

    افتراضي Arab Stock Markets Recover Even as Oil Prices Tumble

    Arab Stock Markets Recover Even as Oil Prices Tumble (Update1)

    By Claudia Maedler

    Middle Eastern stocks, among the world's worst performers in 2006, are beating other emerging markets this year even as oil prices plunge.

    ``Now could be a good time to invest,'' said Oliver Bell, senior investment manager at Pictet Asset Management in London. ``They are being fairly resistant to the decline in oil prices.'' Bell has about $150 million in Egyptian stocks.

    The plunge in Arab markets made them cheaper relative to soaring emerging markets elsewhere, even as the Persian Gulf enjoys economic growth faster than in some other developing regions. Companies and consumers are flush with cash from the surge in oil prices in the past five years.

    Egypt's Orascom Telecom Holding SAE, the largest mobile phone provider in the Middle East, and Kuwait's Mobile Telecommunications Co. are among companies leading gains. Oil, at less than $52 a barrel, is still almost three times higher than five years ago, even after a 34 percent slide since July.

    The Dow Jones DIFC Arabia Titans 50 Index, a measure of 50 stocks in 10 Arab countries, has risen 3.7 percent in the past month as investors fled emerging markets such as Thailand and Venezuela. Morgan Stanley Capital International's Emerging Markets Index added 0.3 percent. Qatar, Oman, Jordan, Egypt and Tunisia are among the world's best performing markets in that time.

    ``A rise in gulf stock markets of something like 30 percent this year looks reasonable,'' said John Lomax, emerging-market strategist at HSBC Holdings Plc in London. He forecasts global emerging markets will rise 15 percent to 20 percent.

    Laggard Markets

    The Middle East was home last year to the seven worst- performing stock benchmarks among 81 tracked globally by Bloomberg. Saudi Arabia's Tadawul All Share Index fell 53 percent, for the biggest drop. Indexes in Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Qatar, Jordan, Kuwait and Lebanon followed. Emerging markets overall gained 29 percent last year, based on the MSCI index.

    Stock markets in the United Arab Emirates will rise this year on ``double digit'' earnings growth, attractive prices and a strong economy, Shuaa Capital PSC, a Dubai-based investment bank, said in a report yesterday.

    Arab countries limit investments by non-residents to varying degrees. Egypt's market is the largest that's open to international investors. Saudi Arabia restricts trading largely to residents, and companies in other Persian Gulf monarchies put curbs on the amount of stock foreigners can hold.

    Investor Sentiment

    Some strategists say Arab markets aren't inexpensive enough to take the risk of a further plunge in oil prices. ``Stocks in the Middle East are not cheap compared to other emerging markets,'' said Oussama Himani, UBS AG's emerging-markets strategist in London. Falling oil prices also aren't going to help investor sentiment, he said.

    Companies in the Dow Jones Titans index sell in aggregate for 14.5 times earnings, in line with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, which tracks 25 developing markets and carries a price- earnings ratio of 14.9. Arab Bank Plc, Jordan's largest lender, is valued at 35 times earnings, while Morocco's biggest listed company, Maroc Telecom, trades at 19.9 times earnings.

    The International Monetary Fund estimates economies in the Gulf Cooperation Council, which pump about a fifth of the world's oil supply, will grow 5.6 percent in 2007 on average. That compares to the 5 percent expansion the fund expects for Central and Eastern Europe. The council consists of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and Oman.

    Flush With Cash

    The surge in oil over the past few years has generated so much cash that it's still supporting the economy, said Khan Zahid, chief economist at Riyad Bank in Saudi Arabia.

    ``Day-to-day changes of the oil prices don't show up in the stock market,'' he said. ``Maybe in a few more months of oil price declines you would start seeing liquidity growth slowing down.'' Oil below $40 a barrel would ``shake up people's confidence.''

    Crude oil futures in New York have declined from their July 14 record of $78.40 a barrel because of a warmer-than-expected winter in the U.S. and receding security concerns in OPEC nations.

    Markets will hold up unless oil prices crash, said Kingsmill Bond, head of emerging-market equity strategy at Deutsche Bank AG in London. ``You need to get to $40 a barrel before the falling oil becomes problematic for Arab stock markets,'' he said.

    Call on Egypt

    Emerging-market stocks have fallen since the MSCI index set a record Jan. 2 as oil and copper prices dropped and amid concern that global economic growth would slow. Shares also were hurt when Venezuela pledged to nationalize its utilities and Thailand toughened rules that limit foreign ownership of local companies.

    Orascom Telecom and Mobile Telecommunications have contributed to the recovery of the Dow Jones Titans index. Orascom jumped 10 percent in the past month, while Mobile Telecommunications advanced 3 percent. Arab Bank added 11 percent. Bahrain's Ahli United Bank BSC rose 5 percent.

    ``Egypt remains a strong positive call,'' HSBC's Lomax wrote in a Jan. 8 report, citing a growing economy and ``superior'' earnings growth rates beyond 2007. The IMF estimates that Egypt's economy will grow 5.6 percent in 2007, matching last year's expansion.

    Gulf Allocation

    Lomax recommended that emerging-market investors allocate 5 percent of their assets to markets in the gulf council. The bloc isn't included in the MSCI Emerging Market Index. HSBC rates markets in the Persian Gulf monarchies and Egypt ``overweight.'' Deutsche Bank last month recommended investors should buy banking and telecommunications shares in Kuwait and Egypt.

    Shares in Kuwait trade at an average of 12.6 times earnings, while stocks in Abu Dhabi are valued at 10.3 times, according to a report this month by Kamco Asset Management in Kuwait.

    A plunge in oil prices, a real-estate ``crash,'' inflation and political tension with Iran are among risks to a rise in U.A.E. markets, Shuaa Capital's report said.

    Lomax said his recommendation on gulf markets holds as long as oil stays above $47 to $48 a barrel.

    ``Provided the oil price does not fall too much further, prices are cheap,'' he said.

    To contact the reporter on this story: Claudia Maedler in Dubai on

  2. #2

    افتراضي رد : Arab Stock Markets Recover Even as Oil Prices Tumble

    thank you اتشرف اني اكون اول من يرد عليك استاذنا

  3. #3

    افتراضي رد : Arab Stock Markets Recover Even as Oil Prices Tumble

    سعر البترول ماتوقع ينزل عن الخمسين
    ولكن هناك قاعده اذا سعرالبترول مرتفع سوق الاسهم ينزل

  4. #5

    افتراضي رد : Arab Stock Markets Recover Even as Oil Prices Tumble

    اخي من اين يمكن ان احصل على اسعار المنتجات البتروكيماويه؟

    وبياناتها القديمه.....وتوقعات لاسعارها على المدى المتوسط والطويل

    اكون شاكر لك جدا إن افدتني

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